How can science prevent a reduction of maize crops that is caused by the climate crisis?

Maize farming in East Africa

The important role of maize in Africa

Maize occupies approximately 24% of
farmland in Africa

More than a quarter of all Africans depend on maize as the main staple food crop.

Climatical conditions impact harvesting maize

The weather in East Africa has changed significantly over the last years.

The conditions for maize farming are deteriorating.

Teleconnections


The best-known one is arguably the anthropogenic global climate change. The rise in temperature around the world influences important teleconnections amongst other things.
The earth is an intricate system but despite efforts to preserve the planet four of nine planetary boundaries are already broken.

Teleconnections are recurring and persistent, large-scale patterns of pressure and circulation anomalies that span over vast geographical areas with a substantial impact on parts of the planet.
The sea surface temperatures (SST) of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the West Pacific (WP) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have an influence on precipitation in East Africa.

At the end of 2019, there was a particularly strong IOD phase resulting in flooding with average precipitation being 300% higher than normal.
Not only precipitation but also the climate is strongly influenced by teleconnections which further accelerates the ongoing climate change. On average, each increase of one degree Celsius in global mean temperature would reduce maize yields by 7.4% (without effective adaptation, genetic improvement and CO₂ fertilization).

Data shows that high sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Pacific (WP) are linked to below-average rainfall in East Africa during the long rains from March to May.
Furthermore, the IOD and ENSO influence the short rains in East Africa occurring from October to December. A positive phase of the IOD is even related to higher than average rainfall in East Africa and can lead to flooding.

Affected parties

Politics

The earth is an intricate system but despite efforts to preserve the planet four of nine planetary boundaries are already broken.
The best-known one is arguably the anthropogenic global climate change. The rise in temperature around the world influences important teleconnections amongst other things.

Farmer

Tanzania’s agricultural sector is dominated by subsistence and smallholder farming systems. The average farm size per household is 2ha and 91% of total farmland is occupied by smallholder farms (Yoshino et al., 2017). Apart from subsistence farming, agriculture is an important source of income with 94% of households in rural areas having an agricultural income (ILFS, 2014, page 24).

Population

Maize is the staple food for the majority of Tanzanians. The use of maize in African cuisine has cultural roots. Maize porridge is known all over the country and it comes in different dishes. The Tanzanian favourite is Ugali which people eat every day. The word ‚Ugali‘ is also used as a synonym for the word meal and shows the importance of maize for the African culture.

Scientists

The introduction of science as a new participant in this model can have enormous benefits for all other parties. Through research, data collection and analysis, it is possible to predict the harvest up to 6 weeks before extreme weather anomalies occur. Scientists can provide critical insights from the research and thus create a basis for future political and economic decisions that will affect farms and the population. In the ideal case, predictions can compensate for crop failures.

Forecasting parameter

Forecasts, in general, give the possibility of a certain current state of the current situation to define its developments, changes and possible extremes in the future. Data from different sources are collected and evaluated. The higher the quality of the data, the better the predictions can be made. This project is mainly concerned with yield forecasts.

Data for the prediction of future harvests are collected by various weather stations, satellites, … around the world. Data that provide information on wind flows and directions, humidity and precipitation are collected over many years. Based on these different weather and climate changes, global correlations and effects can be identified.

As described earlier, weather forecasting for farming needs different important parameters which depend on each other. By visualizing minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation and sea surface temperature and their relations it’s possible to see weather extremes.  

Sea Surface Temperature
West Pacific

The Sea Surface Temperature in the West Pacific region (sst.wp) is a big factor in weather forecasting.
A rise in temperature results in different distributions of warm and cold water which further influences the weather in large parts of the planet.

Precipitation

The precipitation (precip) in the respective geographical region is measured and accounted for during the modelling process. Different levels of rainfall have a strong influence on various climate factors (e.g. temperature and humidity).

Temperature

Temperature (temp) is one of the most influential variables in weather forecasting. So various air temperature levels in the observed region are determined. Particularly important are the average temperature above the surface, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature.If the acquired data is combined, a weather forecast can be developed.

Forecasting crop harvest

To forecast crop harvest, weather predictions are factored in with the conditions for growing maize. As a result, it is possible to forecast the outcome of maize harvest 6 weeks in advance.

Applied Method

If you compare the forecasted yield with the observed yield in Tanzania it is obvious that the data matches almost perfectly. Only regions which cannot provide enough data are inaccurately predicted. That leads to the conclusion that the current model of maize crop yield forecasting in Tanzania is extremely accurate.

Conclusion

Leading countries in maize cultivation

In conclusion, it is to say that a model for yield forecasting in Tanzania is important because of various reasons. Not only does it help to reduce price fluctuations for crops across the country, but it also contributes to food security in famine threatened areas. Therefore yield forecasting should find a worldwide application.
However, the forecasting models are only as good as the collected data. That is the reason why climate data gathering should be improved throughout all continents. If you want to learn more about yield forecasting in Tanzania here is a link to the recently published scientific paper regarding the topic

Imprint

This scrollytelling was developed through the seminar “Planetary Scrollytelling: Visual Data Essays about System Earth” in the summer semester 2020 supervised by Prof. Marian Dörk and Prof. Franziska Morlok
at the University of Applied Sciences in Potsdam.
The scientific content was provided by Rahel Laudien from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

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